Looking ahead, sometimes one needs to......

in order to be prepared.  Here is an article that lays it all out for you. Please consider getting your seeds and getting a garden plot prepped this Fall for next seasons garden. I too think that we're going to see people starving, yes right here in the USA within the next few years and there are many factors that will lead to this, main one being the climate, the other the collapse of our economy and I mean a total collapse :o(  Please read and pray on what you've read and ask God for direction.

17 Signs That You Better Start Preparing For A Nightmarish Global Food Crisis

By Michael, on August 9th, 2012

A nightmarish global food crisis is coming. Even though about a billion people around the planet currently live on the edge of starvation, those of us that live in the wealthy western nations still have more than enough food to eat. But it will not always be that way. With each passing year, the global population goes up while global supplies of fresh water go down. And you need lots of water to grow food. The "breadbaskets" of the world, the United States and Russia, are currently experiencing horrible droughts that scientists tell us are part of a long-term trend. In fact, some are projecting that the United States will soon see the return of Dust Bowl conditions. So what will the rest of the world do when the topsoil in the heartland of the biggest food exporter on the globe dries up and blows away? Just remember what happened back in 2007 and 2008. Food prices rose rapidly and it sparked massive food riots in more than two dozen different nations. So what will things look like when there is a very serious shortage of food around the globe?
On Thursday, the price of corn hit another brand new record high of $8.28 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Unfortunately, the price of corn is likely to go a lot higher because this drought never seems to end.
We just came out of the hottest July ever recorded, and the drought just continues to intensify.
At this point, more than 78 percent of the entire country (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) is experiencing at least some level of drought.
24 percent of the nation is experiencing "extreme" or "exceptional drought". That number has risen by two percent in just the last week alone.
Things are particularly bad in the heartland of America. More than 69 percent of Iowa is experiencing "extreme" or "exceptional drought", more than 81 percent of Illinois is experiencing "extreme" or "exceptional drought", and more than 91 percent of Nebraska is experiencing "extreme" or "exceptional drought".
So what happens if we have another drought like this next year?
This year U.S. consumers won't notice a massive difference.
Yes, prices will rise as we burn through our reserves.
If things get bad enough, eventually the U.S. will cut back on ethanol production.
But there is not going to be starvation in the United States this year.
In other areas of the world, however, people are starving.
Just check out what is happening in Yemen.
And if drought conditions persist in the United States and Russia things are going to get a lot worse. The following is from a recent Reuters article....

The world could face a food crisis of the kind seen in 2007/08 if countries restrict exports on concerns about a drought-fuelled grain price rally, the UN's food agency warned on Thursday, after reporting a surge in global food prices in July.

Oxfam spokesperson Colin Roche had the following to say after the latest global food price numbers were released....

"These new figures prove that the world's food system cannot cope on crumbling foundations. The combination of rising prices and expected low reserves means the world is facing a double danger."

So what happens if global reserves are wiped out by the drought this year, and next year we see an even worse drought?
Most people simply have no idea how incredibly vulnerable the global food system is.
The following are 17 signs that you had better start preparing for a nightmarish global food crisis....
#1 The United States exports more corn, soybeans and wheat than anyone else in the world by far. If Dust Bowl conditions return to the United States, there may not be any food to export in future years.
#2 Since June 18th, the price of corn has risen by more than 62 percent.
#3 The American Restaurant Association is projecting that the price of corn could surpass the $9.50 mark by the end of the year.
#4 Right now, approximately half of all corn being grown in the United States is either in "poor" or "very poor" condition.
#5 2012 will be the third year in a row that the yield for corn will decline in the United States. That has never happened before in American history.
#6 U.S. corn reserves were already near a 15 year low at the end of 2011. The drought of 2012 is going to make things a lot worse.
#7 The U.N. index of cereal prices rose by 17 percent during July.
#8 The global price of sugar increased by 12 percent during July. That price increase had nothing to do with the drought in the United States.
#9 In July, the FAO global food index increased by the most that we have seen in a single month since 2009.
#10 As I have written about previously, millions of fish are dying in rivers and lakes all over the United States due to the heat and the drought.
#11 Crop insurance losses are projected to shatter all-time records this year. In fact, it is being estimated that crop insurance losses could end up exceeding 20 billion dollars.
#12 In many countries around the globe, the poor already spend up to 75 percent of their incomes on food. Even a 10 percent rise in the price of food is enough to send many families over the edge.
#13 Approximately 1 billion people around the world go to bed hungry every single night. So what will that number be if we have a major global food crisis?
#14 Somewhere in the world someone starves to death every 3.6 seconds, and 75 percent of those are children under the age of five.
#15 The United States is facing a long-term water problem. For example, the Ogallala Aquifer is the most important underground water source in the United States and it is rapidly being depleted. At one time, the Ogallala Aquifer had an average depth of approximately 240 feet. Today, the average depth of the Ogallala Aquifer is just 80 feet, and in some parts of Texas the water is totally gone. At the moment, the Ogallala Aquifer is being drained at a rate of approximately 800 gallons per minute. Once that water is gone, the breadbasket of America will lose the major source of water that it uses for irrigation.
#16 Sadly, the drought that we are facing this year is just part of a longer term trend. In fact, one team of scientists recently published a study that postulated that the western United States could be facing a "100-year drought".
#17 Some scientists are already projecting that it is already too late to avoid serious damage to crops next year. According to a recent article in the Guardian, some believe that the drought in the U.S. has been so nightmarish this year that it is going to take a "freak event" to avoid catastrophic damage to next year's corn crops....

What matters now is whether there will be enough rain to get next year's crops off to a good start.
"This drought isn't going anywhere," he said. "The damage is already done. What you are looking for is enough moisture to avert a second year of drought," he said.
However, Svoboda conceded that might require a freak event, especially in the mid-west which has already passed its rain season. "In the entire corn belt, from Indiana to Nebraska to the Dakotas, we have already reached the maximum precipitation periods for year. From here on in, it's all downhill," Svoboda said.
"As far as widespread general relief for the whole region it would take a really freakish dramatic change to make that happen. That doesn't appear to be in the cards, given the time of year we are in."

Are you starting to get the picture?
This drought is unlike anything the United States has seen since the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s.
This is particularly true for the western half of the nation. The following is an extended excerpt from an absolutely outstanding article that was posted on preparednesspro.com....

A white paper I was reading recently showed Mexico as importing 80%+ of our vegetable produce. Now look at the map and see how Mexico is faring with this drought and intense heat. Needless to say this means even higher markups on our fresh foods as well. How about California? It provides over half or our fruit and nut harvests. Look at how they are faring on the Vegetation Condition map! In previous years over 48% of our corn crops went directly to the fuel industry along with another 10% going towards other corn products (some of which you’d never dream were influenced by the corn market). So in a drought condition like this, what little will there be left for our actual food needs?
Mexico is our biggest supplier of vegetables, only sharing a 2 to 1 portion of the lime light with Canada, though China does take a distant third (in dollar values, not pounds) In the fruit category, most of it comes from Central and South America, with only China (4th) to break up the Top 6 of Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Ecuador. Hmmm…have you had a chance to see if there’s a drought problem in those countries too? Yup, there are.
Did you know that nearly three fourths of our meat supplies come from the worst hit drought stricken areas?? Ouch! And we thought the high price of corn was going to kick beef prices sky high? Imagine what will happen when they can’t get ANY food for their cattle.

Hopefully we will get some relief from this drought.
But what if that does not happen?
Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.
If you have not been preparing, you might want to get started.

More news of antibiotics in animal feed.....

This article comes from a newsletter I receive( promoting GMO's and alike) I get this newsletter so I understand the WHOLE picture. What it does is confirm the drive we have to provide for our own animal feed issues and to steer clear of commercial feeds. Read and see just what the FDA, you know the ones who have made it their life's mission to keep raw foods from the public, especially dairy, but..... what are they doing in the cases for REAL CONCERN?

Antibiotics in DDGS may raise some concerns 04 Mar 2011



Of the distillers grains produced in North America, 90% is going into animal feeds with 80% of that going into ruminant diets. Now, public concern has arisen over the safety of the product.

The reason for this concern is a recent survey of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) which found that 53% of the US distillers grains (DDGS) sampled had antibiotic residues.

General fear is that these residues could potentially lead to the development of bacterial resistance in animals and eventually also in humans.

Wet or dry milling

DDGs are primarily produced through dry or wet milling. In dry milling, the whole grain is milled and used for ethanol production.

Wet milling, on the other hand, separates out all of the grain components and only uses the starch for ethanol production. The remaining portion of the grain is used to create a variety of other marketable products.

With each method, the grain or the starch is added to water to create a mash. The mash is heated and enzymes are added to the mixture which allows the starch to breakdown and form glucose.

Protecting the yeast

Next, the mash is fermented. During fermentation, yeast is added to the mixture. The yeast converts the glucose to alcohol. However, during this step bacteria can compete with the yeast, utilizing the glucose to grow. This in turn reduces the amount of ethanol produced from the fermentation process.

In order to combat these competing bacteria, antibiotics are added to the fermentation process. Antibiotics can kill the unwanted bacteria during the fermentation process allowing the yeast to utilize all of the glucose.

Separation of solids

Once fermentation is complete and all of the glucose has been converted to alcohol, the alcohol is separated from the water and solids through a distillation column.

After distillation all that remains are the solid (wet cake) and liquid (thin silage) components of silage. The silage is made up of protein, fibre, oil, and non-fermented starch at a concentration three-fold greater than that in the original corn.
Additionally, antibiotic residues from the fermentation will be present.

Dosing problem

Antibiotics have been used in fuel ethanol production for decades in order to improve production efficiency by reducing levels of contaminating bacteria present during the fermentation of ethanol, allowing for a more productive fermentation.

Antibiotic resistance develops in bacteria during ethanol production due to the misuse of antibiotics. This includes antibiotic overdosing when no effect is observed and underdosing when efficient control is observed.
Overdosing affects the rate of fermentation. Underdosing, on the other hand, leads to a lack of effectiveness of antibiotics. It also carries a greater risk of causing resistance, as bacteria can become accustomed to the antibiotic in low doses and thus develop resistance mechanisms.

FDA responsibility

It is the responsibility of the FDA Centre for Veterinary Medicine (FDA/CVM) to approve the use of drugs in animal feeds, as well as monitor and establish limits for feed contaminants.

Antibiotic residues in distillers grains used as feed or feed ingredients are considered feed additives and regulated by the FDA.

FDA’s primary concern is that antibiotic residues may be present in distillers grains and that those residues could be transferred to animal tissue upon ingestion.

Viginiamycin

The only antibiotic currently approved for use in ethanol production is virginiamycin.

The FDA/CVM issued a letter of no objection for the use of virginiamycin in the fermentation phase of alcohol production at 2 to 6 ppm.

In addition, the CVM did not object to potential residues of 0.2 to 0.5 ppm in distillers by-products. This statement was based on an animal diet containing no more than 20% DDGS.

Moreover, it was stated that the FDA/CVM is unlikely to take regulatory action against DDG-containing feed with residual levels of virginiamycin below 0.5 ppm.
Activity not tested

Although antibiotic residues have been confirmed in distillers grains by the FDA, the activity level of those residues has never been tested.

It is possible that the residues present have been inactivated by the ethanol production process, as the antibiotics are exposed to high and low temperatures and a wide pH range.

Further studies will help to confirm the potential implications of feeding distillers grains with antibiotic residues.

Related article: Multiresidue detecting antibiotics in DDGS

Distillers grains glossary

In order to separate the liquid portion of the silage from the solid portion, centrifugation is used. The wet portion, or thin silage, is evaporated further to produce a thick syrup called condensed solubles. The condensed solubles can then be added to the wet cake to produce a variety of products.

•DWGS – condensed solubles mixed back with partially dried wet cake to create 65% moisture distillers wet grains with soluble;

•DDS – dried condensed solubles or distillers dried soluble;

•DWG – dried wet cake without condensed soluble known as distillers wet grains;

•DDG – further dried DWG to produce dried distillers grains;

•DDGS – dried DWG with solubles to 10 to 12% moisture creating distillers dried grains with soluble;

•MDGS – 50% moisture wet cake with condensed soluble creating modified distillers grains with solubles.

The ever increasing feed costs

                   We've been keeping track of our poultry grain costs for a couple of years now.  It's just getting ridiculous how much feed has gone up.  For example; in this last month we've purchased feed three times. The first being 2-4-11 and the cost of the grains and wild bird feed was $43.96. Then on 2-18-11 the cost for the same grain and wild bird feed was $45.96 and finally today(2-24-11) the cost was $ 46.36. That is an increase of $2.40 in 20 days time or  5.5%   Now this has been happening for a couple of months and all total it comes to a 10.6% increase since Jan. 2, 2011  Now if we were to keep pace by passing on this increase to our egg customers the price of our eggs would raise from $2.50 a dozen to $3.16 . The last time we raised the cost of our eggs, we lost half of our customers and that was over a $.25 increase per dozen.

So......... we're now trying to calculate how many hens we'll actually need to support us and our loyal egg customers and make an adjustment to our flock, meaning downsizing and putting meat in our freezer. By downsizing and growing more alternative crops for our poultry we hope to cut down on our grain costs.  The increased grain cost are certainly going to continue, thus the reasoning behind not raising feeder pigs this winter. With the change in Mike's jobs and the unstable economy, we felt it best to hold back some. Besides our pork supply in the freezer is still good, although the bacon is running low.

In gathering our tax info. together, it really was an eye opener, as to just how much we do spend on grain, for our poultry. This is something we are focusing on changing, planning our other options and will be implementing our ideas this summer to pull away from that ever increasing expense. We will also allowing our birds to have access to more hours on pasture or free ranging.

Planning, planning, planning; with hopes that Spring is just around the corner, so we can begin implementing all of our plans. :o)

Farming is an "ever learning experience" definitely NOT boring. :o)

Multi tasking! , getting our Christmas decorations up, Crafts( how to make ornaments) and baking....

 Our tree this year( 2010). We have to stay with a smaller tree due to our living room size and this year we found one that fits just perfect in front of our bay window.  Cortney already has her gifts for Mike and I under the tree. Now I need to get a few gifts wrapped and under there too.

 Lite up, with LED lights. We bought them last year, on sale and we're quite pleased with them, they do NOT get hot, so the worries of the tree catching fire are not a concern and they are bright, although they don't blink.

              Here are some ornaments we've made, or were given to us in an exchange but all of them are fairly simple to construct and make nice gifts or a new yearly tradition.

 Now this little angel is made of a silk white rose( her dress) then the wings we made out of wedding veil, simply cut into approx. 6=7" circle and gathered at the middle with wire. Her head is wooden, with Spanish moss for her hair and a pipe cleaner forms her halo. This is all glued with hot glue and a ribbon added to the back for easy hanging.

 Again we recycle, here is an incandescent light bulb( one that was burned out) painted with a Santa face and a bit of fur added( again hot glued) around the base of the bulb

 Orange peel, apple slices and cranberries strung on wire, make a nice handmade ornament and the smell wonderful( for the first year anyway) I suppose you could mist them with orange and clove oils to refreshen the smell each year.

 Macaroni noodle angel, this was a gift from a friend. An easy and fun project for children, simply glue the noodles together, paint( I think she just spray painted them outside on a piece of old newspaper), add a bow and maybe a bell or a halo.

 Here is a beaded angle, this is a bit more advanced but still very easy, you'll have to sort of figure out the pattern by looking at it. Once upon a time I had instructions, but who knows where they are now*wink*

Another easy child ornament, made with a Reese's Peanutbutter Cup and an metallic green pipe cleaner, twisted up into a tree form with a hanger on top(hook)

 This little angel was given to us by the same friend who made the macaroni angel. I've seen these beads in the craft store but have no idea what they are called. They are strung together with a metallic gold pipe cleaner and the golden leaves are simply hot glued on the back. The halo is fashioned from the same pipe cleaner that it is strung together  with.

 Again recycling, the kids made these on year, using old Christmas cards from the year before. Cutting and pasting them into the back of another card. Simple and easy way to spurn on creativity.

This is a bit blurred, but you can see it is a needle felted star a friend gave us last year. The wool is from their own sheep.

Shhhh!  This is one of Cortney's gifts.( I have to keep her from looking at this post*wink*) I borrowed the idea from my friend, Goodwife over at Her blog  Her purses are knitted and since I still have yet to learn knitting I improvise and crocheted this little purse for Cortney.  It actually went together pretty quick and I know she'll love it. It's made from a yarn that is 85% wool and 15% mohair, so it should last a long time. :o)

                        

I'll try to post more of our homemade ornaments, that could be done quickly and many of which are easy enough for children to make, with some supervision( especially in dealing with hot glue or spray paint)

We're still working on gourds, hoping to have a few done for pictures this week. Baking of Christmas goodies, making handmade gifts and simply enjoying the music of the season( singing along of course*wink*) while working. :o)

I DID IT! well with a LOT of help

Thanks everyone for your help and comments as to how to make a button for our blog. Ummm Hummm, if you'll look to the right you'll see the button and the code posted below it. Please feel free to copy that code and post it on your blog or share it with friends :o)  Who says you can't teach an ole homesteader new tricks, LOL!!! Thanks again Mrs. G for sharing the tutorial and if you are interested she commented and left the link for the tutorial on my last blog.